Early season football can be a tricky period for the punter. It regularly throws out unpredictable results and there isn’t a huge load of information you can go on to bring you to a solid conclusion. It is probably the time of the year where bettor’s lose the most money. It is possible to turn over a profit during this period, however it does require plenty of patience and a lot of discipline.

Let’s take a look at the best way to approach the early football season.

  • First things first, you do not have much information to go by. Bettor’s rely hugely on form, however it isn’t really there early on. The nearest you can get is to look at preseason form. However it is important not to take this at face value. A lot of the time there will be a different approach taken by each team when playing preseason. You might notice that their top player is coming off early, or they are trying out different formations. You can however still use this information to your advantage. Until more reliable data comes your way, this is probably the best you’ve got.
  • There will be many unpredictable results. You can either try to back these ones and pick the outsider, or you can try to find the games that you think are more predictable than others. It’s no easy task to do any of the above. Realistically, it’s not a bad idea to take a step back and enjoy watching the results come in. Analyse each game to give you more accurate data for the games coming up. There’s no need to jump straight into things and if you can’t find an edge, don’t back anything at all.
  • Avoid the accumulator! I know most people will ignore this, but keep yourself away from that Saturday acca. It’s hard enough early on in the season to find value in one bet, let alone 5 that all have to win for you to see any return. The odds are stacked against you and it will nearly always be a losing investment unless you get very lucky.
  • Don’t fall into the H2H trap. All of a sudden the ‘head to head’ statistic seems to come into play early season. With not much to go on it is easy to make yourself believe that because X have lost to Y in their last 3 fixtures, it is likely that they will lose again. H2H might be useful in some sports like Tennis, but for football, it is best ignored. Too much can and will change for each team over the space of a few years. You’ll find that the club is a whole different setup, therefore these statistics just won’t be representative.

Stay Patient: We all know what it’s like, the build up on TV, Ray Winstone’s face popping up giving you enhanced odds on the next goalscorer. It can be very tempting just to open up the app and have a little flutter. Unless you feel like your bet is genuinely good value and you have reason to back this up, you’re best leaving it alone. Although patience isn’t a gambler’s greatest trait, it’s an important discipline that needs to be highlighted, especially early on in the season!

Take Notes: It’s a great way to gain an edge for later on in the season. Why not analyse all of the stats in each game? If you can watch them back, absolutely do. It’s no easy task to beat the bookmakers, however doing this and creating your own data will certainly push you in the right direction. Is there anything you’re noticing with each team? Has there style changed since last season? How will this suit them in their next game? I’m sure you get my drift. Every bit of information can be put to good use.

Remember: I’m not trying to put you off betting early season entirely. Don’t get me wrong, there absolutely can be an edge and there is value to be had, but it’s important to make sure you have solid reasoning behind each of your bets. Try your best not to fall into the trap of betting on a game purely because it’s on TV. If there are no bets you like the look of, don’t place anything.

Whether you’re betting or not on the early stages of the football season, I hope they treat you well! I personally can’t wait for it to get back underway.

As always, any questions you have for the Casual Gambler team, do not hesitate to ask.

All the best,
Chris