FootballTipsNL – Second Review

Recently we’ve come under a bit of fire from people due to the performance of FootballTipsNL. As anyone would know who has been following us, when we reviewed him a while back he achieved some impressive statistics and rocketed to the top of our table with a solid rating of 9. We have been informed that recently this hasn’t been kept up and the statistics have been moving in the wrong direction. With that in mind we felt the best option was to do a second review. We have been tracking the tips from his premium page for the month of January, here is how he got on.

FootballTipsNL January Results

  • 30 Tips

  • 121 Points Staked

  • 34.97 Point Loss

  • -29% ROI

  • Average Odds – 2.10

Not a good month for FootballTipsNL as said himself. I think it’s worth us comparing these results to when we first reviewed him. Please keep it in mind that for the first review the bets were only being tracked for 1 week.

Results from the Previous Review

  • £235.50 Profit

  • 35% ROI

Quite a difference between each one. However it is important to understand that these dips in form are reasonably expected in betting. I’m afraid they do happen, I can understand that for the punter it’s terrible when anything you bet on seems to lose. I know it has felt that way for a large number of people who have recently been following FootballTipsNL.

I hope that this review can help, whether that be helping out FootballTipsNL himself, or even helping his followers understand why this is happening. I think we should break down what went wrong over January and how this could be improved on.

Picking up from a bad run is always tricky and there are instances where people might try and chase their losses to push the stats back up. This of course is a very slippery slope and can just lead to more and more losses. I was looking carefully through the stats of FootballTipsNL to see firstly if there were any instances of this. He uses a points based staking plan ranging from anywhere between 2-7 points on each bet. The 7 point bet was used twice. One of these bets landed and the other lost, making the big bet a slight loss overall. If he were to be chasing losses I would expect to see a few higher staked bets and possibly some higher odds. So from what I could see over the month it looks like he was happy to stick to his game plan.

FootballTipsNL relies on a variety of different leagues and a variety of different markets for his bets. The main market he uses is over 2.5 goals, with 20 out of the 30 bets placed on this. There was a 50% strike rate in this market, which did lead to an overall loss of 3.15 points. Let’s see how he got on with each market a bet was placed on.

Over 2.5 Goals

  • 20 Bets Placed

  • 10 Won/10 Lost

  • -3.15 Points

Over 3.5 Goals

  • 1 Bet Placed

  • 0 Won/1 Lost

  • – 3 Points

Win Market

  • 4 Bets Placed

  • 1 Won/3 Lost

  • -10.82 Points

BTTS

  • 3 Bets Placed

  • 0 Won/3 Lost

  • -13 Points

Team Goals

  • 2 Bets Placed

  • 0 won/2 Lost

  • -5 Points

As you can see none of the markets came back profitable, which at this stage doesn’t by any means suggest he shouldn’t be using any of them. Out of these the best markets look to be the overs markets. As this is his most used market I would assume this in the long run is where most of the money is made. If I were FootballTipsNL I would be more inclined to knuckle down and stick with his strengths. Especially as each of the others really haven’t been good. Bad runs in betting do happen, that is just a fact and it is almost unavoidable, limiting your losses can make a big difference to ROI in the long run. Sticking to what you know best it often the number 1 way to make this happen.

I assume Paul from FootballTipsNL is analysing his betting patterns as well, as there is so much to look at that could potentially cause losses. There’s potential that the staking plan could do with looking at and he might even want to consider taking a slightly different angle when researching his tips. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to take on less leagues. Focus on a small few and really get to know them well. It’s not easy to have expert knowledge across every single league.

I’ve seen that FootballTipsNL has received quite a bit of stick for his performance recently. Understandably when people pay for a service they expect returns which is natural. Some people have even come to us trying to hold us responsible! I would like to remind everyone that even the most skilled bettors have losing runs. Swings come and go. Naturally no one expects a tipster to win 100% of their bets, therefore if you accept that losses will happen, you have to realise that sometimes these will happen one after the other. In our last review he went on a very good run, so hopefully we will see something similar in the near future. I feel like us dropping the rating too much wouldn’t be right. For now we will see it to a 7 and will keep an eye on his tips to see if they start going back in the right direction, or if they continue dropping.

Don’t get me wrong, this might not be the case at all with FootballTipsNL, as a month is a very short period to judge the performance on certain markets. As you can see the sample size is very small so it is by no means completely representative. However I am highlighting the importance of picking out any potential weaknesses. I know that Paul, the owner of FootballTipsNL is working hard to get back on track and will try his best to get some results for all his followers. He has a good bunch of loyal fans who are sticking with him and relying on his skill. I for one hope that he is able to begin performing again, I have the confidence that he will.